Ageneric predictive information system for resource planning and optimisation

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel UniversityThe purpose of this research work is to demonstrate the feasibility of creating a quick response decision platform for middle management in industry. It utilises the strengths of current, but more importantly creates a leap forward in the theory and practice of Supervisory and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems and Discrete Event Simulation and Modelling (DESM). The proposed research platform uses real-time data and creates an automatic platform for real-time and predictive system analysis, giving current and ahead of time information on the performance of the system in an efficient manner. Data acquisition as the backend connection of data integration system to the shop floor faces both hardware and software challenges for coping with large scale real-time data collection. Limited scope of SCADA systems does not make them suitable candidates for this. Cost effectiveness, complexity, and efficiency-orientation of proprietary solutions leave space for more challenge. A Flexible Data Input Layer Architecture (FDILA) is proposed to address generic data integration platform so a multitude of data sources can be connected to the data processing unit. The efficiency of the proposed integration architecture lies in decentralising and distributing services between different layers. A novel Sensitivity Analysis (SA) method called EvenTracker is proposed as an effective tool to measure the importance and priority of inputs to the system. The EvenTracker method is introduced to deal with the complexity systems in real-time. The approach takes advantage of event-based definition of data involved in process flow. The underpinning logic behind EvenTracker SA method is capturing the cause-effect relationships between triggers (input variables) and events (output variables) at a specified period of time determined by an expert. The approach does not require estimating data distribution of any kind. Neither the performance model requires execution beyond the real-time. The proposed EvenTracker sensitivity analysis method has the lowest computational complexity compared with other popular sensitivity analysis methods. For proof of concept, a three tier data integration system was designed and developed by using National Instruments’ LabVIEW programming language, Rockwell Automation’s Arena simulation and modelling software, and OPC data communication software. A laboratory-based conveyor system with 29 sensors was installed to simulate a typical shop floor production line. In addition, EvenTracker SA method has been implemented on the data extracted from 28 sensors of one manufacturing line in a real factory. The experiment has resulted 14% of the input variables to be unimportant for evaluation of model outputs. The method proved a time efficiency gain of 52% on the analysis of filtered system when unimportant input variables were not sampled anymore. The EvenTracker SA method compared to Entropy-based SA technique, as the only other method that can be used for real-time purposes, is quicker, more accurate and less computationally burdensome. Additionally, theoretic estimation of computational complexity of SA methods based on both structural complexity and energy-time analysis resulted in favour of the efficiency of the proposed EvenTracker SA method. Both laboratory and factory-based experiments demonstrated flexibility and efficiency of the proposed solution.The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

Plethysmography Variability Index as a Guidance for Intraoperative Fluid Management in Cesarean Section Delivery under Spinal Anesthesia: A Pilot Study

Background: Plethysmography variability index (PVI) is a measure of the dynamic changes in the perfusion index (PI) that occur during one or more complete respiratory cycles. This study was designed to investigate the accuracy of PVI in guidance of fluid management in parturient undergoing cesarean section surgery under spinal anesthesia.Methods: This randomized clinical trial was performed on 21 consecutive patients who were candidate for cesarean section surgery under spinal anesthesia at Shariati Hospital in Tehran, Iran, between April 2015 and April 2016. The patients were randomly assigned to one of the PVI or conventional group. In all patients, serum level of lactate, mean arterial pressure (MAP), total amount of infused intraoperative fluids, urine output, and duration of surgery were recorded.Results: In total, 21 patients (10 in PVI group and 11 in control group) were assessed. The trend of the change in MAP was significantly different between the two groups with a downward trend in PVI group and a fluctuated trend in the conventional group (P = 0.003). The mean amount of infused fluid was 2565.00 ± 563.74 ml in PVI group that was significantly lower than control group (3122.73 ± 321.99 ml) (P = 0.011). Although urine output was numerically higher in PVI than in control group (425.00 ± 274.12 ml vs. 322.00 ± 121.82 ml), it was not statistically significant (P = 0.292). In PVI group, the primary value of PVI was 23.80 ± 6.93 that reached to 12.20 ± 1.75 at the end of surgery indicating a significant reduction (P < 0.001).Conclusions: Regarding clinical and hemodynamic stability as well as fluid therapy responsiveness (less requiring fluids within surgery), PVI monitoring seems to be superior to the conventional method

Job Burnout, Stress, and Satisfaction among Emergency Nursing Staff after Health System Transformation Plan in Iran

Introduction: Job burnout, stress, and satisfaction are linked to quality of care, patient outcomes and retention of staff. This study was conducted to determine the mentioned issues among emergency nurses.Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on all nurses working in the emergency departments of 10 hospitals in Tehran, Iran, in 2017. Standard questionnaires were used for gathering the data of participants regarding job burnout, stress, and satisfaction. Results: 709 (90%) participants returned the completed questionnaires (58.9% female). The mean age of the nurses was 33 (SD = 7) years. The level of job burnout was moderate in 76.1%, low in 22.5%, and high in 1.4% of the nurses. The level of burnout in the married nursing staff was lower than single nurses (3.78 ± 0.98 versus 4.14 ± 0.58, p = 0.049). The level of job satisfaction was moderate in 61.1%, low in 22.2%, and high in 16.7%. There was a significant correlation between age and job satisfaction (p = 0.027, r = 0.3). Job burnout was directly correlated with job stress (p ≤0.001, r = 0.57) and job burnout was negatively correlated with job satisfaction (p = 0.001, r = -0.41). Conclusion: More than 60% of the studied emergency nurses had moderate levels of job burnout, stress, and satisfaction. Job burnout had a direct correlation with job stress and indirect correlation with job satisfaction. Planning to reduce burnout of the emergency nursing staff seems to be necessary

The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence. METHODS: In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world. FUNDING: The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Multi-disciplinary approaches to intelligently sharing large-volumes of real-time sensor data during natural disasters

describe our knowledge-based service architecture for multi-risk environmental decision-support, capable of handling geo-distributed heterogeneous real-time data sources. Data sources include tide gauges, buoys, seismic sensors, satellites, earthquake alerts, Web 2.0 feeds to crowd source 'unconventional' measurements, and simulations of Tsunami wave propagation. Our system of systems multi-bus architecture provides a scalable and high performance messaging backbone. We are overcoming semantic interoperability between heterogeneous datasets by using a self-describing 'plug-in' data source approach. As crises develop we can agilely steer the processing server and adapt data fusion and mining algorithm configurations in real-time